Royal Challengers Bengaluru have established themselves as the leading playoff contenders in IPL 2026 following their thrilling last-ball victory over Mumbai Indians. Based on simulations run over 100,000 possible league-stage outcomes, RCB now boast a remarkable 94.82% chance of securing a playoff spot after Sunday’s results.
The same simulations confirmed that both Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants are effectively out of the playoff race. Neither team managed to qualify in any of the latest scenarios, having each suffered eight defeats in their 11 matches.
RCB’s dramatic two-wicket win in Raipur not only propelled them to the top of the points table with 14 points but also significantly boosted their chances of finishing in the top two. Bengaluru now have a 63.41% probability of ending the league stage among the top two, with their strong Net Run Rate of +1.103 providing a critical edge in tight qualification scenarios.
Here’s a breakdown of each team’s playoff and top-two probabilities, along with average finish position:
– **RCB**: 94.82% playoff, 63.41% top-two, average finish 2.31
– **SRH**: 91.74% playoff, 58.66% top-two, average finish 2.54
– **GT**: 87.53% playoff, 54.11% top-two, average finish 2.83
– **PBKS**: 84.69% playoff, 49.52% top-two, average finish 3.04
– **CSK**: 58.47% playoff, 18.76% top-two, average finish 4.68
– **RR**: 54.33% playoff, 14.91% top-two, average finish 4.96
– **KKR**: 19.84% playoff, 1.63% top-two, average finish 6.22
– **DC**: 8.41% playoff, 0.44% top-two, average finish 7.11
– **MI**: 0.00% playoff, 0.00% top-two, average finish 8.67
– **LSG**: 0.00% playoff, 0.00% top-two, average finish 8.94
Sunrisers Hyderabad remain close behind with a 91.74% playoff probability and a 58.66% top-two projection, though they slipped from first to second on Net Run Rate. Gujarat Titans strengthened their position after a dominant win over Rajasthan Royals earlier in the week, now holding an 87.53% playoff probability.
Punjab Kings, despite being fourth with 13 points, project very strongly because they have four matches remaining—more than any other top-six contender. PBKS qualify in 84.69% of simulations and still have nearly a 50% chance of finishing in the top two.
The most significant movement after Sunday’s results occurred in the middle of the table. Chennai Super Kings’ five-wicket victory over Lucknow Super Giants revitalized their campaign, lifting their playoff probability to 58.47%. This makes them statistical favorites over Rajasthan Royals, even though both teams are on 12 points. The difference is largely driven by schedule: Chennai still faces SRH and GT, but have momentum with four wins in their last five games. Rajasthan’s projections suffer from poor recent form and a damaged Net Run Rate after their 77-run defeat to Gujarat. RR now have a 54.33% playoff probability, a notable drop from earlier simulations where they were above 80%.
Kolkata Knight Riders remain alive at 19.84%, but they likely need at least three wins from their final four matches combined with favorable results elsewhere. Delhi Capitals still have faint mathematical pathways at 8.41%, but their disastrous Net Run Rate of -1.154 heavily undermines their chances in tie scenarios.
For Mumbai Indians and Lucknow Super Giants, the race is effectively over. With PBKS on 13 points occupying the last playoff spot, neither MI nor LSG can surpass or even equal PBKS’s points, even if they win all remaining games. With only three league matches left and multiple teams already on 12–14 points, the playoff cut-off has moved beyond their reach.
**Remaining IPL 2026 Fixtures and Predicted Favorites:**
– Match 55: PBKS vs DC – PBKS
– Match 56: GT vs SRH – GT (very close)
– Match 57: RCB vs KKR – RCB
– Match 58: PBKS vs MI – PBKS
– Match 59: LSG vs CSK – CSK
– Match 60: KKR vs GT – GT
– Match 61: PBKS vs RCB – PBKS (very close)
– Match 62: DC vs RR – RR
– Match 63: CSK vs SRH – SRH
– Match 64: RR vs LSG – RR
– Match 65: KKR vs MI – KKR
– Match 66: GT vs CSK – GT